xov xwm

1. Kev Xav Tau Tseem Ceeb los ntawm AI Servers thiab Data Centers

Cov neeg rau zaub mov AI sawv cev rau qhov chaw loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev thov nce ntxiv rauCov ntaub iav fiber tsawg-dielectricCov txheej txheem kev cob qhia AI thiab kev xam pom vam khom kev sib pauv cov ntaub ntawv loj heev, ua rau yuav tsum siv cov PCBs uas suav tau ntau txheej thiab cov thev naus laus zis sib txuas ceev ceev; qhov no ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntau rau cov khoom dielectric thiab kev ruaj khov ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Nrog rau kev siv cov thev naus laus zis xws li PCIe 6.0 thiab 224G optical modules, cov kev xav tau kev ua tau zoo rau cov ntawv ci tooj liab (CCL) hauv AI servers tau hloov pauv los ntawm cov qauv qis qis mus rau qib ultra-low-loss (ULL) thiab hyper-low-loss (HLL) qib, uas ua rau muaj kev thov ntau ntxiv rau cov qib sib xws ntawm cov ntaub iav fiber tsawg-dielectric. Cov ntaub ntawv lag luam qhia tias tus nqi ntawm CCLs hauv AI servers yog 5 txog 8 npaug ntawm cov servers ib txwm muaj. Raws li cov khoom siv raw tseem ceeb, cov ntaub iav fiber tsawg-dielectric siab kawg tau pom nws tus nqi ncav cuag 320,000-350,000 RMB / ton hauv xyoo 2025 - nce 20% txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo - nrog qee cov qauv tshwj xeeb ntsib kev nce nqi ntawm ntau npaum li 250%-300%.

Hais txog qhov sib txawv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, uas yog vim muaj kev thov ntau ntxiv los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom AI thiab kev txwv ntawm kev tsim cov ntaub hluav taws xob zoo tshaj plaws, cov khoom muaj kev nyab xeeb ntawm cov ntaub hluav taws xob zoo tshaj plaws ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom loj CCL tau poob qis dua ib lub lim tiam, uas yog qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm. Txhawm rau kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam zoo, cov chaw tsim khoom CCL tau raug yuam kom nce tus nqi yuav khoom. Vim muaj tus nqi tam sim no thiab qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, cov ntaub iav fiber zoo tshaj plaws yuav pom kev nce ntxiv tib lub sijhawm hauv ob qho tib si ntim thiab tus nqi.

2. Cov Kev Cai Ua Haujlwm rau Kev Ntim Khoom Siv High-End Chip

Kev siv tshuab ntim khoom siab heev rau AI chips sawv cev rau lwm qhov xwm txheej tseem ceeb rau kev sivCov ntaub iav fiber tsawg-dielectricRaws li cov txheej txheem tsim khoom siv chip nce mus rau 3nm node thiab dhau mus, cov ntim khoom tseem nce ntxiv. ABF substrates - cov neeg nqa khoom tseem ceeb txuas cov chips rau PCBs - tso cai rau cov kev cai nruj heev rau cov khoom dielectric thiab kev huv ntawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus. Feem ntau, qhov dielectric tas li yuav tsum poob rau hauv 3.0–4.0 ntau yam (ntawm 1 MHz), nyob ntawm qhov zaus ua haujlwm, thaum lub dissipation factor (Df) yuav tsum tswj tau ntawm 0.005 thiab 0.010 (ntawm 1 MHz); cov ntawv thov zaus siab (xws li 5G thiab kev sib txuas lus ceev ceev) yuav xav tau txawm tias qis dua tus nqi (<0.005). Ntxiv mus, kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntim khoom siab, cov ntaub ntawv yuav tsum sib npaug Coefficient qis ntawm Thermal Expansion (CTE) nrog kev tiv thaiv kub siab kom tiv thaiv kev tawg ntawm lub voj voog los ntawm kev ntxhov siab thermal. Cov ntaub fiber quartz (tseem hu ua "Q-fabric" lossis "third-generation electronic fabric") tau tshwm sim ua cov khoom siv zoo tshaj plaws rau ABF substrates vim nws qhov dielectric tsis tu ncua (2.2–2.3), qhov poob dielectric tsawg kawg nkaus (Df ntawm 0.001–0.0005), thiab muaj peev xwm tiv taus qhov kub thiab txias ua haujlwm ntev ntawm 600 ° C lossis siab dua.

Kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb AI chip yog qhov tsav tsheb ncaj qha rau kev nthuav dav ntawm kev thov rau cov ntaub quartz. Raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm Future Think Tank, kev lag luam ntaub quartz thoob ntiaj teb yuav ncav cuag $ 3.127 billion los ntawm 2031, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) ntawm 23.30%. Qhov kev kwv yees no qhia txog qhov sib txawv ntawm kev thov, uas nyob ntawm kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev xa khoom AI chip thiab kev siv dav dav ntawm cov thev naus laus zis ntim khoom siab heev. Ntxiv mus, kev tsim kho ntawm cov platform AI tiam tom ntej - xws li "Rubin" - sib haum nrog 3nm lossis N4 chip tsim cov txheej txheem thiab siv CoWoS-L ultra-large substrate ntim. Cov platforms no sib xyaw ua ke yim HBM4 stacks kom tau raws li qhov xav tau rau bandwidth siab dua thiab kev sib txuas, muab cov kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws rau kev ntsuas lub zog suav. Cov kev xav tau rau ultra-large substrates thiab kev ua tau zoo heev yuav nthuav dav ntxiv qhov kev thov rau cov ntaub ntawv raw quartz, tsav tsheb kev hloov pauv ntawm Low-Dk (qis dielectric constant) iav ntaub mus rau qhov qis dua dielectric constants thiab qis dua cov yam ntxwv poob.

3. Kev Sib Koom Tes Ua Ke ntawm Kev Loj Hlob Thoob Plaws Ntau Lub Chaw

Dhau ntawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm AI computing power, qhov kev thov los ntawm cov teb xws li 5G/6G kev sib txuas lus thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab heev yog tsav tsheb kev loj hlob synergistic nrog AI. Kev hloov pauv los ntawm 5G millimeter-wave (24–100 GHz) mus rau 6G terahertz technology (zaus ntau yam kwv yees li 100 GHz–3 THz) cuam tshuam nrog cov zaus siab dua uas ua rau cov khoom siv sib txuas lus rhiab heev rau kev poob teeb liab. Thaum lub sijhawm 5G xav tau cov ntaub fiberglass ultra-low-loss, lub sijhawm 6G tso cai rau cov kev cai nruj dua rau dielectric constant (Dk) thiab dissipation factor (Df): Dk yuav tsum poob rau 2.0–3.0 (ntawm >100 GHz), thiab Df yuav tsum txo qis los ntawm tus qauv 5G ntawm 0.003–0.005 (ntawm 10 GHz) mus rau 0.0001–0.0007 (ntawm 100 GHz), tsim kom muaj qhov xav tau rau "kev poob qis heev" quartz ntaub. Hauv kev lag luam khoom siv hluav taws xob rau cov neeg siv khoom, iPhone 17 tau siv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion) thiab cov ntaub dielectric qis uas Honghe Technology muab los daws cov teeb meem xws li kev sib txuas lub A10 Pro 3nm chip, tiv thaiv kev sib txhuam hauv cov motherboards siab, thiab txo qis kev poob zog hauv cov teeb liab 5G/Wi-Fi 7 zaus siab. Qhov kev txav no qhia txog kev hloov pauv sai ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob siab los ntawm kev siv hauv kev lag luam mus rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rau cov neeg siv khoom, tsav tsheb nce ntxiv hauv kev thov khoom siv thiab ncua sijhawm xa khoom. Kev txhim kho ntse ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb kuj tseem pab txhawb rau kev thov ntau ntxiv; kev tsav tsheb tsis siv neeg siab heev (Qib 3 thiab siab dua) xav tau ntau lub sensor ADAS thiab radars siab. Cov kab ke no xav tau kev ruaj khov ntawm kev xa xov tooj cua, kev ntseeg siab mus sij hawm ntev ntawm kev sib koom ua ke, thiab kev ua haujlwm siab-qib tsheb tiv thaiv kev co, cua sov, thiab av noo. Yog li ntawd, cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub rooj tsavxwm uas muaj cov khoom siv dielectric qis, kev poob dielectric qis, CAF (conductive anodic filament) tsis kam, thiab CTE qis tau dhau los ua qhov kev xaiv zoo tshaj plaws rau cov kab ke tsav tsheb ntse siab heev, ua kom nrawm dua kev siv cov ntaub fiberglass siab heev. Cov kev kwv yees kev lag luam qhia tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rau cov ntaub hluav taws xob qis-dielectric-tsis tu ncua tuaj yeem ncav cuag 3.76 billion yuan los ntawm xyoo 2031, loj hlob ntawm tus nqi sib xyaw txhua xyoo ntawm 10.1% - qhov sib txawv uas tsav los ntawm kev sib sau ua ke ntawm kev thov thoob plaws ntau lub lag luam.

Qhov ciam teb kawg ntawm kev nthuav dav lub zog xam zauv yog nyob rau hauv kev tawg dhau qhov txwv ntawm cov khoom siv. Txij li cov PCBs uas tsis tshua muaj kev poob qis siv rau hauv AI servers thiab cov ntaub quartz hauv cov ntim khoom siab heev mus rau cov laminates siab rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab kev tsav tsheb tsis siv neeg, cov ntaub fiberglass qis-dielectric tab tom nkag mus rau "lub sijhawm tsis tau muaj dua hauv qhov chaw pom kev." Nyob rau hauv thaj chaw ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov uas muaj cov ntim nce ntxiv, cov nqi nce ntxiv, thiab kev tsis txaus, cov "ntaub hluav taws xob" no zoo li sib dua tau tshwm sim ua ib qho ntawm cov kev lag luam loj hlob tshaj plaws uas txuas cov khoom siv kho vajtse AI thiab cov thev naus laus zis sib txuas lus siab tiam tom ntej.